[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 5 10:52:11 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 980 produced a B1.8 class flare and continues to shown
signs of decay. Learmonth Solar observatory observed new region
981 at approximately 0500UT to be a high-latitude reversed-polarity
sunspot pertaining to the beginning of new solar cycle 24. Solar
wind velocity climbed from 290km/s at 0000UT to be 320km/s at
the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11112112
Darwin 5 21112212
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 5 11112213
Camden 4 11112112
Canberra 3 11011112
Hobart 3 11111102
Casey(Ant) 6 22311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled
to Active periods possible over the next 2 days due to transient
effects from recent CME's. Quiet conditions expected 07Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF values observed at low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours with isolated enhanced periods. Mostly
normal HF conditions for high latitudes with some isolated enhanced
periods. Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Local daytime and evening MUF depressions of 20% observed
over Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during the last
24 hours, and mostly normal HF conditions for local nights. Antarctic
regions experienced mostly normal HF conditions with isolated
enhanced periods. Continued sporadic E observed for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. This pattern of ionospheric behaviour is expected
to continue for the next 2 days while solar and geomagnetic activity
remain at very low levels. Chance of disturbed ionospheric conditions
for polar regions in the next 2 days due to transient effects
from recent CME's.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 10700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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