[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 4 10:32:32 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 980 did not produce any notable flares and has shown signs
of decay. Further C-class flares possible from this region over
the next few days. Solar wind velocity remained between 320km/s
and 340km/s over the UT day. Bz was predominently southward,
with a maximum of -3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 4 12212111
Learmonth 3 31111001
Camden 3 21111011
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 2 11110101
Casey(Ant) 7 33221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours.
Unsettled to Active periods possible over the next 3 days
due to transient effects from recent CME's.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
05 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF values observed at low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions for high
latitudes with some isolated distrubed periods. Similar conditions
expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jan -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 January
and is current for interval 2-4 January. Local daytime MUF depressions
of 20% observed over Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions
during the last 24 hours, and mostly normal HF conditions for
local evening/nights. Antarctic regions experienced mostly normal
HF conditions. Continued sporadic E observed for Southern AUS/NZ
regions. This pattern of ionospheric behaviour is expected to
continue for the next few days while solar and geomagnetic activity
remain at very low levels. Chance of disturbed ionospheric conditions
for polar regions due to transient effects from recent CME's.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 23200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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