[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 2 10:54:41 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 85/27 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
980 produced a C1.1 class flare at 1537UT. There were also numerous
B-class events throughout the UT day. Further C-class flares
are likely from this region over the next few days with the small
chance of M-class flares. Solar wind velocity ranged between
340km/s-400km/s over the UT day. Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 22111012
Camden 4 12121112
Canberra 2 12011011
Hobart 2 12111001
Casey(Ant) 5 3-221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 5 Quiet
03 Jan 5 Quiet
04 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the Australian region for the next
few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
04 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Depressed MUF values for all regions observed over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next few days,
with an expected improvement in ionospheric support due to the
recent increase in solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan -10 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 31 December
and is current for interval 31 December to 2 January (SWFs) .
Mild MUF depressions around ~20% observed at times across the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Due to the recent
increase in solar activity, a possible improvement in ionospheric
support is expected over the next few days. Notable sporadic-E
was again observed at times across the Southern Australian region
during the past 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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