[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 1 10:24:13 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: A eastward directed CME was observed in association 
with the C8-flare at 0111UT on 31 December from solar region 
10980 (returning region 10978) located on the SE limb. Further 
C-class flares are likely from this region over the next few 
days with the small chance of M-class flares. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222222
      Darwin               6   22122222
      Townsville           7   12222232
      Learmonth            8   12223232
      Camden               5   12122122
      Canberra             5   02122122
      Hobart               5   02222122
      Casey(Ant)           9   23-32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     5    Quiet 
02 Jan     5    Quiet 
03 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian 
region for the next few days. The CME observed on 31 December 
is not expected to be geoeffective. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Dec   -17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan   -10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Jan    -5    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
03 Jan     0    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for interval 31 December to 2 January (SWFs) . 
MUF depressions of up to 30% were observed at times across the 
Australian region over the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are 
expected at times over the Aus/NZ region for the next few days, 
however, depressions should become less significant as solar 
activity is expected to be mildly elevated over the next few 
days. Blanketing Sporadic-E was again observed at times across 
the Australian region during the past 24 hours which may have 
effected HF propagation conditions. Continuing sporadic-E is 
expected at times for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    41400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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