[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 2 10:13:38 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the 
sun. A recurrent coronal hole is geoeffective and the associated 
high speed solar wind stream has increased from 450 to 600 km/s 
over the last 24 hours. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) has fluctuated between +/- 8nT 
over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33332333
      Darwin              10   23222233
      Townsville          13   23332333
      Learmonth           17   33332344
      Camden              12   23322333
      Canberra            14   33332333
      Hobart              15   33332343
      Casey(Ant)          22   45-32334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   0000 1233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    12    Unsettled 
03 Feb    12    Unsettled 
04 Feb    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect an unsettled level of geomagnetic activity with 
isolated cases of active levels for the next 3 days due to a 
high speed solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: A mild disturbance in the geomagnetic field may hinder 
HF propagation slightly. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Feb    4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during UT day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E (Es) was noted at Sydney and Vanimo during 
the local day and sunset hours. Brisbane, Darwin, Learmonth, 
Hobart, Macquarie Is. and Norfolk Is. showed variable Es most 
of the UT day. Expect Es to continue for most of the Australian 
region for the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    52200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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