[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 1 10:22:24 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the
sun. ACE spacecraft shows a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)
followed by a highspeed stream increase from 350 to 450 km/s
due to a coronal hole reaching its geoeffective position. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
was mostly near neutral until approximately 1200UT when it started
flucuating between +/-7nT and for the last couple hours has remained
southerly at about -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 11122333
Darwin 8 21012333
Townsville 9 12222333
Learmonth 10 10022443
Camden 7 10111333
Canberra 7 10022333
Hobart 5 11012232
Casey(Ant) 13 33222343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 18 active
02 Feb 12 Unsettled
03 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect unsettle to active level of geomagnetic activity
for the next 3 days due to a high speed solar wind stream effects
with a possibility of isolated minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 12 near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E (Es) was noted at Brisbane, Sydney, Hobart,
Macquarie Is., and Vanimo during the local day and and sunset
hours. Nuie, Darwin, Learmonth, Norfolk Is., and Townsville showed
variable Es most of the UT day. Expect Es to continue for most
of the Australian region for the next several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 68700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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