[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 31 10:24:46 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity observed at the ACE satellite platform has
been trending upwards since 16UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101012
Darwin 1 10000002
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 1 10001002
Camden 2 10001012
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11100011
Casey(Ant) 5 13212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes over
the past UT day. Solar wind parameters observed at the ACE satellite
platform have been trending upwards since 16UT. This is probably
the arrival of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream, which
should become geoeffective by the start of the UT day Dec 31.
Expect quiet to unsettled conditions with the chance of isolated
active intervals next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28 December
and is current for interval 29-31 December. Variable MUF
depressions/enhancements observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. Periods
of intense sporadic-E conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions. Expect
similar conditions next three days with the chance of disturbances
in Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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