[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 30 10:34:50 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind parameters are at nominal levels. A recurrent coronal
hole wind stream onset is anticipated on day one of the forecast
period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 2 21110001
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 5 Quiet
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes over
the past UT day. A coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated
on day one of the forecast period with geomagnetic conditions
becoming unsettled. Chance of isolated active intervals next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28 December
and is current for interval 29-31 December. Variable MUF
depressions/enhancements observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. Periods
of intense sporadic-E conditions observed Central-S Aus/NZ regions.
Expect similar conditions next three days with the chance of
disturbances in Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 34800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list