[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 26 10:03:29 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind has returned to normal levels and is expected 
to remain at normal levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122121
      Darwin               5   11122122
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   21023121
      Camden               3   11122011
      Canberra             3   11022011
      Hobart               4   11113111
      Casey(Ant)          12   3-333232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2312 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     2    Quiet 
27 Dec     2    Quiet 
28 Dec     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Dec   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
27 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
28 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 26-28 December. Expect depressions 
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern 
Australian regions. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at most 
stations. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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