[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 25 10:27:37 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind decreased
to 500 km/s and is expected to decrease to normal levels and
remain at normal levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22321211
Darwin 5 21221211
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 8 22322222
Camden 4 11221111
Canberra 4 12221111
Hobart 6 22321210
Casey(Ant) 12 3-432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2312 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 6 Quiet
26 Dec 2 Quiet
27 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 22 December
and is current for interval 23-25 December. Expect depressions
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern
Australian regions. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at most
stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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