[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 23 10:41:01 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has increased 
from 290 to 425km/s and data from ACE indicates the Earth is 
moving through a co-rotating interaction region preceding a coronal 
hole. Due to the recurrent coronal hole the solar wind speeds 
are expected to reach 600 km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field dipped down to -10 nT between approximately 1500-1630 
UT, otherwise the Bz was mostly northward. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11111323
      Darwin               5   10101323
      Townsville           6   22221-22
      Learmonth            6   11101323
      Camden               5   11101322
      Canberra             2   101011--
      Hobart               4   11100-32
      Casey(Ant)          10   23222323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1010 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Dec     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next 3 days due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind 
stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Dec   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
24 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
25 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: Expect depressions of 10 to 30% most likely at local 
night at mid to low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    30200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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