[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 22 10:33:53 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Very Low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity 
fell to be 280km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed 
is expected to increase in the next 24-36 hours due to a recurrent 
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz ranged between 
+2nT and -4nT over the UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11220111
      Darwin               2   11110002
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            3   20120200
      Camden               2   11210011
      Canberra             2   10220011
      Hobart               2   11210011
      Casey(Ant)           6   2-322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Dec    12    Unsettled 
24 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
due to the arrival of a hole speed solar wind stream from a 
recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
23 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
24 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec   -24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Dec   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 20 December 
and is current for interval 20-22 December. Mostly normal HF 
conditions during local day for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions. 
Depressed conditions for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. 
Similar conditions expected for the next 3 days, with MUF 
depressions 10%-20% expected for mid to high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    46300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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