[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 13 10:28:14 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Boulder active region 1009 has rotated around the south-
west limb, however noted some activity on the LASCO C3 images
showing a weak CME beginning at 0142UT, 12 December on the south-west
limb from the expected vicinity of AR 1009. The solar wind speed
is at approximately 420 km/s and is expected to reach 500 km/s
today (13 December) due to weak coronal hole and then return to
normal levels on 14 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21122212
Darwin 5 21121212
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 5 21122212
Camden 4 11122121
Canberra 4 10122112
Hobart 4 11122111
Casey(Ant) 11 33-33221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect quiet to unsettled conditions today (13 December)with
a chance of isolated active conditions at high latitudes due
to a weak coronal hole effects. Conditions are expected to return
to quiet levels the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
14 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
15 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 11 December
and is current for interval 11-14 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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