[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 12 10:27:28 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Region 1009 (S25W73) produced a C1.4 flare at 0925 UT
and a number of sub-flares. The solar wind speed has increased
to around 400 km/s from its low on the 10th, probably due to the
effects of a small coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet with some
activity at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222312
Camden 5 22112211
Canberra 6 22212212
Hobart 5 22212211
Casey(Ant) 14 34-33322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 6 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
13 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
14 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Forecast activity is due to the effects of a small coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
13 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
At Vanimo, frequencies mostly near predicted 00-14 UT
with depressions to 50% at times thereafter. At Niue,
frequencies were mostly 15-40% depressed with daytime
sporadic E and night time spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
At Darwin and Townsville, frequencies were depressed
to 30% 00-05 UT then mostly near predicted monthly
values. At Cocos Is., frequencies were near predicted
to 13 UT then mostly 30% depressed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Frequencies were near predicted monthly values to 25%
depressed. Sporadic E observed at most stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Frequencies at
Macquarie Is. were near predicted with depressions to
30% 12-17 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
13 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
14 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 11 December
and is current for interval 11-14 December. MUFs may increase
on 12th and 13th in response to increased ionisation due to solar
effects. However, MUFs are expected to return to depressed levels
on 14th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 28900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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