[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 10 10:29:10 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 4 10230102
Townsville 5 22112122
Learmonth 2 10011102
Camden 0 00000011
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 2 11100002
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5 0111 2320
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 5 Quiet
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 6 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Frequencies at Vanimo were near predicted with
depressions to 30% 10-16 UT. At Niue, frequencies
were mostly 15-40% depressed with some night spread F.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 45%
mostly 13-22 UT. At Townsville, frequencies mostly
15-40% depressed with near predicted values 05-09 and
18-22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressions to 40%. Near predicted monthly values at
most stations 19-21 UT. Some sporadic E, mostly
daytime.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40%
observed at Macquarie Is, 12-16 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
11 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
12 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 7 December
and is current for interval 8-10 December. Depressions may
occasionally be deeper than predicted. Sporadic E formation may
disrupt or degrade F region communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 76700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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