[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 9 10:33:16 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters are returning to normal. The solar
wind speed is currently around 420 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21201111
Darwin 3 21101111
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 2 21100111
Camden 3 --300011
Canberra 1 21000000
Hobart 2 21100110
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0213 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 5 Quiet
10 Dec 5 Quiet
11 Dec 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Vanimo. Frequencies
at Niue were 15-60% depressed apart from near
predicted during 01-05 and 16-17 UT. Some night spread
F observed at Niue.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted mostly between 04-09 and 16-19 UT.
Depressions to 30% at other times. At Cocos Is.
frequencies were 15-50% depressed with frequencies
near predicted 00-01, 10-11 and 20-22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 15 to 30% depressed. Occasional sporadic E,
blanketing at times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20%
depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
10 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
11 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 7 December
and is current for interval 8-10 December. Depressions may
occasionally be deeper than predicted above. Night spread may
degrade night communications at some locations while sporadic E
formation may obscure the F region at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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