[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 4 10:51:54 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased after 16UT indicating onset 
of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Solar activity remains 
very low. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22222332
      Darwin               8   21222323
      Townsville           9   22222332
      Learmonth           11   22223333
      Camden               9   22222332
      Canberra            10   22222333
      Hobart               7   12222322
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
06 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet for the first 
half of the UT day. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream 
onset occurred after 16UT, with conditions tending towards unsettled. 
Expect quiet to unsettled conditions next three days with the 
chance of isolated active periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Poor-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
05 Dec      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Dec   -35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec   -35    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Dec   -15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Dec   -15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 2 December 
and is current for interval 3-4 December. Variable and occasionally 
severe depressions observed Equatorial region, extending at times 
to N Aus region. Widespread sporadic-E conditions observed Central-S 
Aus latitudes local day 03 Dec and after local dawn 04 Dec. Expect 
similar conditions day one. Possible disturbances Antarctic region 
days two and three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 291 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    13000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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