[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 3 10:47:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at ~300km/s and the
IMF remained mostly neutral. The visible solar disk is spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 1 01100001
Townsville 5 12211221
Learmonth 2 10101002
Camden 1 00101001
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 10110000
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 2 Quiet
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Quiet
geomagnetic conditions expected day one. Quiet to unsettled conditions
expected days two to three due to a recurrent coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec -35 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 2 December
and is current for interval 3-4 December. Depressed ionospheric
conditions at low to mid latitudes observed and expected to continue
next two to three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:NaN%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 12300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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