[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 24 09:31:57 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: No active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind 
parameters remain at nominal levels. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            1   11001100
      Camden               1   01001001
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               1   1001200-
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug     5    Quiet 
25 Aug     4    Quiet 
26 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal values. The 
geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day. Expect generally 
quiet conditions next three days. Chance of isolated unsettled 
intervals at high latitudes day one. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
25 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
26 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night/after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT 
day with variable depressions throughout the Equatorial/N Aus 
regions due to low solar activity. Significant depressions observed 
around local dawn in PNG and Indian Ocean regions. Expect mostly 
normal conditions next three days with continuing variable depressions
in the Equatorial region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    40900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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