[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 23 09:34:08 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind stream parameters
have declined towards nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Darwin 3 22111110
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 1 11111000
Camden 3 11221001
Canberra 2 10221000
Hobart 3 11221010
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0013 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 4 Quiet
24 Aug 6 Quiet
25 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have declined towards nominal
values. The geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid latitudes
with isolated unsettled periods at high latitudes. Expect generally
quiet conditions next three days. Chance of isolated unsettled
intervals day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed at times up to 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT
day with variable depressions throughout the Equatorial/N Aus
regions due to low solar activity. Significant depressions observed
around local dawn in PNG and Indian Ocean regions. Expect mostly
normal conditions next three days with continuing variable depressions
in the Equatorial region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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