[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 13 09:29:15 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug:  65/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has ranged 
from about 520 to 630 km/s over the last 24 hours. A longitudinally 
small coronal hole will be geoeffectively positioned on the 14th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               4   22111211
      Townsville           9   22322322
      Learmonth            5   22211211
      Camden               5   21212211
      Canberra             6   22222211
      Hobart               6   21222221
      Casey(Ant)          10   33322312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3211 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug     5    Quiet 
14 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Aug     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Activity may increase on the 14th due to the effects 
of a high speed stream associated with a small coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Aug    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      at Niue 19-23 UT. Some night spread F observed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      at Darwin 02-08 and 17-21 UT, to 30% at Cocos Is. 03-07
      UT and to 30% at Townsville 00 and 23 UT. Night spread
      F observed at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. At Christchurch depressions
      to 25% were observed 06-08 and 11-13 UT and sporadic E
      observed 01-18 UT. Night spread F observed at most stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
14 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
15 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 

COMMENT: Sporadic E and night spread F may degrade or disrupt 
F region communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 620 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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