[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 12 09:27:37 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has ranged 
from about 580 to 640 km/s over the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the next day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               5   22212211
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   22223211
      Camden               5   22222210
      Canberra             6   22222211
      Hobart               6   22213211
      Casey(Ant)          12   33323232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              14   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   4431 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     5    Quiet 
13 Aug     5    Quiet 
14 Aug     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Aug    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed to 50% at times at Vanimo. Niue frequencies
      were mostly near predicted monthly values with
      depressions to 30% 02-03, 08 and 20-23 UT. Sporadic E
      observed at Vanimo 06-19 UT and Niue 01-09 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      30% at Darwin 03-06 UT and Townsville 23 UT. Sporadic
      E observed at Darwin 05-17 UT and Townsville 09-11 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 40%
      10-20 UT. Night spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
13 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
14 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 

COMMENT: Sporadic E and night spread F may degrade or disrupt 
F region communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 625 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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