[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 5 09:29:28 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind ranged from 
about 310 to 370 km/s over the past 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   21111011
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            0   1-010000
      Camden               1   11010001
      Canberra             1   11011001
      Hobart               1   11011010
      Casey(Ant)           3   12111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1000 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     5    Quiet 
06 Aug     5    Quiet 
07 Aug     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Aug    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Vanimo frequencies were near predicted 00-06, 21 UT;
      depressed to 45% 07-15 UT. Blanketing sporadic E
      observed 17-20 UT. Frequencies were mostly near
      predicted at Niue with depressions to 30% 01-02, 04-05
      and 21-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted to 30% depressed 00-10 UT, then near
      predicted monthly values. Some night spread F
      observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to
      45% observed at some stations 08-21 UT. Night spread F
      observed at some stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
06 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
07 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 

COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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