[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 4 09:06:36 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 
3 days. Solar disk is spotless. Solar wind is just below normal 
levels of 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +/-4nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110121
      Darwin               3   1111112-
      Townsville           5   2221122-
      Learmonth            3   1111022-
      Camden               1   01100111
      Canberra             2   01100121
      Hobart               3   21100121
      Casey(Ant)           5   22111221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug     4    Quiet 
05 Aug     4    Quiet 
06 Aug     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Expect mostly quiet conditions over the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours. Expect normal conditions in the Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions. Also expect Normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
with continued slight enhancements during local night. Slightly 
enhanced conditons are expected in the antarctic region during 
local night however usually show a weak trace on the ionogram. 
Local day for the antarctic region should be near normal conditions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    53800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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