[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 18 09:38:31 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days. Solar wind velocity decreased from 580km/s at 0000UT
to be 520km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between
+/-3nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22121211
Darwin 5 22112211
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth 6 22122221
Camden 4 22111111
Canberra 5 23111210
Hobart 5 22111311
Casey(Ant) 8 23331211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 112 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 15 3242 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 7 Quiet
19 Apr 6 Quiet
20 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. With the gradual decrease in solar wind velocity,
mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
19 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions with notable sporadic E. Depressed conditions
also during local night for Equatorial regions. Southern AUS/NZ
regions experienced mostly normal HF conditions with enhanced
ionospheric support during local night. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for
the next 3 days with continued depressions of 10%-20% for Northern
Australia And Equatorial regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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