[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 17 09:52:39 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only minor B class events from region 990. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind velocity increased
from 400km/s at 0000UT to be ~580km/s at the time of this report.
Bz fluctuated between +/-10nT between 1000UT-1300UT and +/-5nT
otherwise.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 22334332
Darwin 9 22233222
Townsville 13 22334233
Learmonth 13 22334332
Camden 12 21334322
Canberra 13 21334332
Hobart 12 21324332
Casey(Ant) 11 32233232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 0000 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Apr 7 Quiet
19 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with the increase in solar wind velocity. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for 19Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
18 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions observed
over the last 24 hours with enhancements for Equatorial regions
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal conditions expected for
the next 3 days with isolated depressions of 10%-20% possible
for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 31900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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