[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 11 09:26:43 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from approximately 580 to 
690 km/s over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected 
to continue declining. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Periods of activity were observed at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32333211
      Darwin               7   22223211
      Townsville          11   32333222
      Learmonth           12   32334222
      Camden               7   22223211
      Canberra             7   -2223211
      Hobart               8   22233211
      Casey(Ant)          15   34433222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3343 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
12 Apr     5    Quiet 
13 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: There is still the chance of isolated active conditions 
at high latitudes over the next 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Apr     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. At Vanimo, MUFs were
      depressed 25% at 02 UT and enhanced to 30% 10-20 UT.
      At Niue, depressions to 40% were observed 00-01 and
      05-06 UT; some night spread F observed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      observed at Darwin and Townsville 00-05 UT and Darwin
      10-12 UT. Some night spread F observed at Darwin and
      Brisbane.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      observed at Sydney and Canberra 14-20 UT. Night spread
      F observed at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Spread
      F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 692 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   206000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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