[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 10 09:31:07 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from approximately 630 to 
775 km/s over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed is likely 
to slowly decline over the forecast period. A CME was first observed 
on the SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 1106 UT. This CME appears to have 
been ejected from behind the south west limb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Active to minor storm levels observed at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 09 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32333211
      Darwin               6   22222211
      Townsville          11   32333222
      Learmonth           11   33333221
      Camden               8   22332211
      Canberra            10   32333211
      Hobart               9   22333211
      Casey(Ant)          17   44433213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            83   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             101   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1123 3223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
11 Apr     5    Quiet 
12 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active levels possible over the next 24 hours 
at high latitudes. The above mentioned CME is considered unlikely 
to be geoeffective. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 60% at
      Vanimo 12-20 UT. Night spread F and afternoon sporadic
      E observed at Niue.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      observed at Darwin and Townsville, 01-05 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed
      at Hobart and Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Spread
      F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 657 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   193000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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