[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 6 09:49:36 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds were predominantly between 600-650
km/s over the past 24 hours due to a coronal hole solar wind
stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated for
the next 24-48 hours and then decline slowly. A CME observed
in LASCO imagery appears to have originated from behind the west
limb and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity is
expected to remain mostly at very low levels for the next few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with active periods at some stations and storm periods
at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 22133333
Darwin 10 32123323
Townsville 12 22233333
Learmonth 13 22233433
Camden 11 22133333
Canberra 12 22143332
Hobart 14 22144333
Casey(Ant) 13 34-22-23
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 0001 2353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled with the chance of isolated
active periods and minor storm levels at high
latitudes.
07 Apr 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with active levels
possible at high latitudes.
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 1 April and
is current for interval 4-6 April. Elevated solar wind speeds
and periods of southward IMF resulted in minor to major storm
periods for high latitudes with some active periods observed
at low-mid latitudes. Isolated active periods are possible over
the Australian region for 6 April with minor storm levels possible
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal to
slightly depressed at times for the Aus/NZ region for 6-7 April.
Spread-F conditions have been observed at times at some stations
during the past 24 hours which may have degraded HF communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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