[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 5 10:37:04 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very
low levels for the next three days, with the very small chance
of isolated C-class flares. Solar wind parameters indicate the
anticipated coronal hole wind stream arrived during the latter
half of the UT day of 4 April, resulting in elevated solar wind
speeds and periods of southward IMF. Solar wind speeds are presently
above 500 km/s and expected to remain elevated for the next few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 22112333
Darwin 7 21012332
Townsville 10 22222333
Learmonth 12 11113443
Camden 6 11012332
Canberra 6 11012332
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 13 23323333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 18 Mostly unsettled to active with storm levels
possible at high latitudes.
06 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled with active to minor storm levels
possible at high latitudes.
07 Apr 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with active levels
possible at high latitudes.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 1 April and
is current for interval 4-6 April. The arrival of an anticipated
coronal hole solar wind stream in the latter half of the UT day
of 4 April resulted in active to minor storm levels at high latitudes,
with mostly unsettled levels across the Australian region. Isolated
active periods are possible over the Australian region for 5
April with storm levels possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 15 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal to
slightly enhanced for the Aus/NZ region for 5 April. Depressions
of 5-15% may be observed at times during 6-7 April as the result
of slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Spread-F conditions
have been observed at times across most regions during the past
24 hours and are expected at times for 5 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 44800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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