[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 24 09:44:18 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last 
24 hours. There are no spots on the visible solar disk. 
Due to the currently going on coronal hole effect the 
solar wind stream remained strong. The solar wind speed 
stayed between 600 km/s and 660 km/s for most part of the 
UT day today. This coronal hole effect is expected to keep 
the solar wind stream strengthened on 24 September and 
then graudally decline. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to mild 
(upto around +/-5nT) fluctuations on both sides of the 
normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to active. 

Estimated Indices 23 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33332212
      Darwin               8   23322112
      Townsville          13   34333222
      Learmonth           16   34433223
      Camden               9   23332112
      Canberra            12   23432213
      Hobart               9   23332212
      Casey(Ant)          16   44432223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3231 2243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep    12    Mostly unsettled with some possibility of isolated 
                active conditions. 
25 Sep     7    Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible. 
26 Sep     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurrent coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic 
activity enhanced to unsettled to active levels on 24 
September on most locations. The geomagnetic activity is 
then expected to gradually decline. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and 
depressions in MUFs may be observed on most locations on 
to 24 September with the possibility of mild to moderate 
degradations in conditions at times on high latitudes on 
this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Sep     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of significant degradations and depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%. 
25 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
26 Sep     4    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to mild and sometimes moderate degradations 
may be possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 24 September 
due to an anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   223000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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