[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 19 09:28:31 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               70/5
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and 
solar activity is expected to remain very low. Over the UT day 
the solar wind speed was low (~350km/s) and the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/- 2 nT. Similar conditions 
are expected 19-20 Sept. From 21 Sept. a recurring coronal hole 
region is expected to raise solar wind speed and density to moderately
elevated levels. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112111
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            3   22112001
      Camden               2   11012001
      Canberra             1   --012000
      Hobart               5   21122121
      Casey(Ant)           5   3-221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep     4    Quiet 
20 Sep     5    Quiet 
21 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (18 
Sept). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected 19-20 Sept. 
Around 21 Sept. moderately elevated solar wind speed and density 
are likely to produce some Unsettled conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
20 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
21 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions observed 18 Sept. with 
generally weak ionospheric support due to the very low solar 
activity. Expect mostly normal HF conditions 19-21 Sept. Spread 
F possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees during night time 
hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Sep     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep     5    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
20 Sep     5    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
21 Sep     5    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and 
N.Aus regions 18 Sept, particularly during local night. The S.Aus 
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal. Minor depressions are 
expected to continue over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    40500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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