[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 18 09:19:37 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. Over the UT day
the solar wind speed was low (350km/s) and the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/- 4 nT. Similar conditions
are expected 18 Sept.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11112011
Darwin - --------
Townsville 5 22112122
Learmonth 3 12112011
Camden 1 10002001
Canberra 2 11002001
Hobart 2 10112001
Casey(Ant) 3 11211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 4 Quiet
19 Sep 4 Quiet
20 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (17
Sep). Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected 18-20 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
19 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
20 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions observed 17 Sept. with
generally weak ionospheric support due to the very low solar
activity. Expect mostly normal HF conditions 18-20 Sept. Spread
F possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees during night time
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 5 about 20% below predicted monthly values
19 Sep 5 about 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Sep 5 about 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and
N.Aus regions 17 Sept, particularly during local night. The S.Aus
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal. Minor depressions are
expected to continue over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 42300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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