[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 16 09:22:17 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and 
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The high speed 
coronal hole wind stream arrived 14/2000UT resulting in elevated 
solar wind speeds, Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) 'turbulence' 
and an initial enhancement in solar wind density. Maximum speed 
reached was low at ~450km/s so the geomagnetic effects will be 
small. The solar wind speed should decline steadily over the next 
1-2 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           7   32211222
      Learmonth            7   32221221
      Camden               2   21110101
      Canberra             3   22110011
      Hobart               3   21111111
      Casey(Ant)           7   33211121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1000 0232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep     5    Quiet 
17 Sep     3    Quiet 
18 Sep     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Unsettled for the first quarter 
of the UT day (15 Sep) in response to the arrival fo a coronal 
hole wind stream, from where it returned to Quiet for the remainder 
of the UT day. The geomagnetic effects of this coronal hole were 
smaller than predicted, and no further disturbance is expected. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions 16-18 Sep. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
17 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: The anticiptated geomagnetic activity was less than 
expected 15 Sep and unlikely to significantly effect HF conditions. 
Spread F possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees overnight. 
Otherwise mostly normal HF expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Sep    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values 
17 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values 
18 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and N.Aus 
regions 15 Sep, particularly during the local day. The S.Aus 
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal with some strong MUF 
enhancements observed overnight. Continuing depressions 10-20% 
are expected 16-17 Sep in the equatorial and N.Aus regions during 
the day, otherwise mostly normal conditions expected. Spread 
F conditions likely in the S.Aus/NZ regions overnight. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:    33600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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