[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 15 09:52:08 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind
speed picked up in the last four hours of the UT day (14 Sep)
to be near 400km/s at the time of this report. The second half
of the UT day has shown greater fluctuation in solar wind parameters,
particularly the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and solar
wind density, likely due to arrival of a weak coronal hole. Effects
are likely to continue into 15 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Darwin 5 12111222
Townsville 7 22212232
Learmonth 7 21122232
Camden 3 11011212
Canberra 3 10101122
Hobart 4 10111312
Casey(Ant) 5 22211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 12 Unsettled
16 Sep 5 Quiet
17 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet for most of the UT day
(14 Sep), becoming Unsettled in the last four hours of the UT
day in response to solar wind fluctuations associated with a
coronal hole. Unsettled conditions are expected for 15 Sep before
a return to mostly Quiet conditions 16-17 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions possible 15 Sep in response
to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Continuing Spread F conditions
possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees overnight. Sporadic
E possible at high latitudes 15 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Sep 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and N.Aus
regions 14 Sep, particularly during the local day. The S.Aus
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal with some mild enhancements
observed overnight. Continuing mild depressions 10-20% are expected
15-16 Sep in the absence of solar active regions and subsequent
low levels of EUV. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions on 15 Sep
may also act to further depress MUFs. Continuing Spread F conditions
likely in the S.Aus/NZ regions overnight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 270 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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