[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 10 09:40:18 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar disc is currently without active regions and solar
activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind has decreased
over the last 24 hours from 430 km/s to ~330km/sec at the L1
observed by the ACE spacecraft.
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
The STEREO-B spacecraft observing what will pass across the
geoeffective
L1 point in day or so also observed relatively steady solar wind
speeds around normal 350 km/s
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_insitu.shtml
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field IMF has
fluctuated north and south over the last 24 hours with the only
significant southwards 8-12UT and 21-22UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 11221222
Learmonth 4 12221102
Camden 1 00110100
Canberra 1 00110001
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 6 22321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2222 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 4 Quiet
11 Sep 6 Quiet
12 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is currently quiet. Expected to
remain quiet for at least 2-3 days due to the normal solar wind
speed (Vsw) observed at L1 point by ACE and the low to normal
speeds a day or so ahead at STEREO-B (see solar section). IMF
seems to have also returned to a normal north-south pattern,
reducing geomagnetic merging and activity, rather than the extended
southwards associated with the solar sector boundary crossing
6-7 Sept.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Fair-normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 0 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep 5 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
12 Sep 10 about 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F observed at some Australian latitudes at night
which may degrade HF comms by multipath if re-occurring. Advisable
to check ionograms for station near reflection point of the HF
circuit http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3 Low latitudes suffering
nighttime depressions and mid-latitudes still below average despite
the return to quiet geomagnetic conditions. Geomagnetic conditions
expected to be quiet so the ionosphere should recover to monthly
averages over the next 3 days although the lack of solar active
regions with ionising EUV radiation will make this recovery slow.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 78200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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