[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 5 09:44:53 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed observed at the L1 point by the ACE 
spacecraft declined over the UT day from 650 to 550 km/sec and 
is hence still enhanced. The next recurrent coronal hole high-speed 
solar-wind stream (HSSWS), due 6th Sept, may be overlapping with 
the one just rotating out of geo-effectiveness.
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html 
The STEREO-A 'ahead' spacecraft showed a more steady 600km/s, 
likely the HSSWS just past and the 'behind' STEREO-B ~500km/sec, 
likely the trough between the last and next HSSWS.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_insitu.shtml 
Solar wind speed is expected to maintain slightly elevated levels 
on 5 Sep before increasing on 6 Sep. The IMF Bz component fluctuated 
north and south, not conducive to merging with the geomagnetic 
field. No significant X-ray flare activity from AR970. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222112
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            7   22223122
      Camden               4   12222011
      Canberra             4   12222001
      Hobart               5   12222012
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3323 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep     5    Quiet 
06 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
07 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity due to the recurrent coronal hole 
HSSWS should continue to subside on 5 Sept. The effect of the 
next coronal hole should commence on 6th Sept. The two HSSWS 
may have merged and solar wind speeds may not decline to normal 
350 km/sec between them. Hence the geomanetic field may remain 
slightly above quiet levels before increasing 6 Sept. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values although some
      dusk and night depressions observed,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep    10    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
06 Sep     0    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
07 Sep     8    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally expect frequencies to be returning to near 
or slightly below monthly averages today as solar coronal hole 
effects decline. Next recurrent hole expected to take effect 
on 6th Sept. Solar wind speed remains moderately elevated however 
so the geomagnetic field may remain slightly active before the 
next cornal hole HSSWS. This will continue to depress the ionosphere 
and there is also low ionistation from AR970 to replenish it. 
Strong spread F was observed pre-dawn and night at many latitudes. 
Sporadic E was also widespread although often non-blanketing. 
This may degrade communications with multipath fading if it
re-occurs.Equatorial 
latitudes showed slight depressions. Polar latitudes showed some 
absorption although this was not a full PCA. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 623 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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