[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 4 09:38:39 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated and increased from
in particle density. The IMF Bz component fluctuated north and
south. Solar wind speed is expected to remain disturbed today.
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective on
6th Aug. Only a single B class X-ray flare was recorded.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22233312
Darwin 7 22223212
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 11 23233313
Camden 8 22233212
Canberra 9 22233312
Hobart 10 22333312
Casey(Ant) 16 43323423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 96 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 4534 4243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 6 Quiet
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Activity due to the recurrent coronal hole should begin
to subside on 4 September. The effect of the next coronal hole
should commence on 6th Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 8 about 10% below predicted monthly values
05 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally expect frequencies to be returning to monthly
averages today as solar coronal hole effects decline. Next recurrent
hole expected to take effect on 6th Aug UT. Strong spread F observed
last night at southern latitudes (esp Hobart and some at Christchurch)
and may degrade communications with multipath fading if it re-occurs.
Extensive sporadic E also observed at night at southern latitudes.
PNG showed a strong nighttime reduction in foF2 which may re-occur
in the declining phase of the current coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 606 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 205000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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