[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 15 09:32:50 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last
24 hours and is expected to continue to remain at this
level for the next few days. Solar wind speed decreased
from 350 km/s to nearly 300 km/s by 0600UT and remained
around 300 km/s during the rest of the UT day. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
mostly southwards (upto around -5nT) during the first half
of the UT day today. Bz showed minor to mild fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value during the second half of
the day- staying positive for relatively longer periods of
time. The effect of a recurrent coronal hole may start
to strengthen the solar wind stream from 17 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 5 21122211
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 5 22222201
Camden 4 12222101
Canberra 5 12322101
Hobart 5 22222111
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 4 Quiet
16 Oct 4 Quiet
17 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at
quiet levels on 15 and 16 October. The effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole may raise the
geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels on 17 October with
some possibility of isolated active periods on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF condiions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated periods of minor to mild degradations in conditions
and depressions in MUFs on high latitudes on 17 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal in
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list