[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: There are no visible sunspots on the solar disk. The 
density of the solar wind was at elevated levels throughout the 
UT day. Solar wind speed remains at low levels and is expected 
to remain at low levels over the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           5   12212121
      Learmonth            2   10112011
      Camden               2   11011011
      Canberra             1   01011011
      Hobart               3   11112011
      Casey(Ant)           6   22321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0110 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct     4    Quiet 
15 Oct     4    Quiet 
16 Oct     4    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values 
15 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values 
16 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support continues to be weak in equatorial 
PNG/Pacific regions, particular during night time hours, due 
to very low levels of solar ionising radiation. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 306 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    48100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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