[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 8 10:35:24 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions average over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain so over the next 2-3 days. IMF Bz
had extended Bz southward periods 23-02UT and 09-12UT but generally
under 2nT so possibly not very geoeffective. Vsw was low, oscillating
near 260 km/sec. STEREO-B shows a coronal hole in the ~20 latitude
geoeffective band that will rotate to geoeffective longitudes
in a few days. New Region 973 decayed to plage and isn't far
from rotating off the limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 11000001
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 2 21110011
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 4 Quiet
09 Nov 4 Quiet
10 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetically quiet day globally and expected to remain
so for 2-3 days in the absence of extended periods of IMF Bz
southwards of substantial magnitude. Some unsettled periods at
polar latitudes 05-11UT due to low amplitude Bz southwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions in terms of reduced
MUFs and spread F have again been observed at low and mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions for at least
the next 2 days. High latitudes variable although usual extensive
spread F evident. Extended periods of IMF Bz southwards at magntitudes
greater than ~3nT should disturb the polar ionosphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
09 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
10 Nov -12 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
COMMENT: General depressions in MUFs again observed across
Australian/NZ
region due to lack of solar ionising EUV. Sonde coverage across
PNG and Pacific were intermittent but MUFs also assumed depressed.
Spread F again widely observed. An anomalous enhancement was
again observed across the Australian sector post dusk for 2-3hours
before local midnight, followed by a deeper trough post midnight.
More towards the north and reduced in amplitude compared with
yesterday. Depressed MUFs compared with predicted monthly averages
are expected to continue for the next 2 days at least. The new
solar Region 973 is decaying and rotating off the solar limb
and does not appear to have provided much ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 274 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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