[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 7 10:27:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions were average over the last 24
hours and are expected to remain so over the next 2-3 days. IMF
Bz had extended Bz southward periods 03-11UT and 12-18UT but
generally under 2nT so possibly not very geoeffective. The coronal
hole at geoeffective solar longitudes is possibly at too high
latitude (~27S) for the enhanced solar wind to impact Earth.
Vsw was low, slowly declining from 280 to 260 km/sec. STEREO-B
shows a coronal hole at lower latitudes that may be geoeffective
in a few days. New Region 973 (S11W54) appeared and is an A-type
sunspot group with low flare potental.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 3 21111102
Townsville 5 22212121
Learmonth 3 21101102
Camden 1 11001001
Canberra 1 21001000
Hobart 1 00111001
Casey(Ant) 4 12221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1111 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 5 Quiet
08 Nov 4 Quiet
09 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetically quiet day globally and expected to remain
so for 2-3 days in the absence of extended periods of IMF Bz
southwards of substantial magnitude.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions in terms of reduced
MUFs and spread F have again been observed at low and mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions for at least
the next 2 days. High latitudes variable and not as disturbed
as yesterday although usual extensive spread F evident. Extended
periods of IMF Bz southwards at magntitudes greater than 2-3nT
will disturb high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed.
08 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed.
09 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 4 November
and is current for interval 5-7 November. General depressions
in MUFs again observed across Pacific, Equatorial/PNG and Australian
regions due to lack of solar ionising EUV and active regions.
An anomaous enhancement was observed across the Australian sector
post dusk for 2-3 hours before local midnight. Depressions compared
with predicted monthly averages are expected to continue for
the next 2 days at least. Spread-F observed across wide regions,
particularly at night. A new solar Region 973 may increase ionisation
and MUFs over the next few days if it remains.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 16100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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