[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER

STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **

-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21222111
      Darwin               4   21122111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   21223221
      Camden               4   11122111
      Canberra             3   10212111
      Hobart               4   11222111
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--22221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   5321 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov     5    Quiet 
02 Nov    11    Quiet to unsettled with a possible isolated active 
                period 
03 Nov     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Oct   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
02 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for the interval 30 October to 1 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 502 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    98600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.

-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"