[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 2 09:33:26 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Over the next several days expect solar activity to be very low 
to low with the possibility of isolated C-class flares. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated between 
+/-2nT over the last 24 hours. The solar wind has decreased to 
460km/s and is expected to continue to decrease to approximately 
400km/s. The LASCO SOHO images show what appears to be a far-side 
CME on the east limb commencing at approximately 13:42 on 01 May 07. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22312111
      Darwin               5   22212112
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            9   33322212
      Camden               6   22312111
      Canberra             7   22412111
      Hobart               8   22412121
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20   5542 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     4    Quiet 
03 May     4    Quiet 
04 May     4    Quiet 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however at high 
latitudes there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer was 
detected via the ionosondes and at low latitudes there was a 
mild depression during local day. Expect near normal HF conditions 
over the next several days with isolated cases of sporadic E 
possible at low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    11    near predicted monthly values 
03 May    11    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    11    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however in the 
antarctic region there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer 
was detected via the ionosondes and in the equatorial region 
there was a mild depression during the local day. Also noted 
at equatorial and northern Australian regions were isolated cases 
of sporadic E. Over the next several days expect the HF conditions 
to be near normal with isolated cases of sporadic E at equatorial 
and northern Australian regions. Spread F noted on the Hobart 
ionograms. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 630 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   170000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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