[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 1 09:07:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Over the next several days expect solar activity to be very low
to low with the possibility of isolated C-class flares. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated between
+/-5nT over the last 24 hours and has been mostly neutral for
the last 12 hours The solar wind is presently 550km/s and has
steadily decreased from 680km/s over the last 24 hours.
Expect this trend to continue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 33432311
Darwin 8 23322211
Townsville 12 33332322
Learmonth 15 33532312
Camden 11 23432311
Canberra 11 23432311
Hobart 13 24432312
Casey(Ant) 11 43322311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 98 (Minor storm)
Canberra 86 (Minor storm)
Hobart 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23 5554 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 May 4 Quiet
03 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to slowly return
to quiet levels over the next several day as the high speed wind
stream decreases in speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal
03 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however at high
latitudes there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer was
detected via the ionosondes and at low latitudes there was a
mild depression during local dawn. Expect near normal HF conditions
over the next several days with isolated cases of sporadic E
possible at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 15 near predicted monthly values
02 May 15 near predicted monthly values
03 May 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 29 April
and is current for interval 30 April to 1 May. Overall HF conditions
were near normal, however in the antarctic region there were
isolated periods were no foF2 layer was detected via the ionosondes
and in the equatorial region there was a mild depression at local
dawn. Also noted at equatorial and northern Australian regions
were isolated cases of sporadic E. Over the next several days
expect the HF conditions to be near normal with isolated cases
of sporadic E at equatorial and northern Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 650 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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