[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 30 09:38:10 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity declined from 430km/s to be 400km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component (Bz) of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-2nT for
the first half of the UT day after which its magnitude increased
to 4nT but with no southward excursions. Solar wind parameters
are expected to increase on 01Apr with the arrival of a high
speed solar wind stream from a equatorial positioned geoeffective
coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next few days with no changes expected in the
only sunspot on disk, region 949.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22111122
Camden 2 11101002
Canberra 2 11001002
Hobart 2 12001001
Casey(Ant) 6 23212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3321 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 5 Quiet
31 Mar 5 Quiet
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
geomag levels are expected for the next 2 days. An increase in
geomagnetic activity is expected from 01Apr onwards with the
anticipated arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from
a equatorial positioned coronal hole that will then be
geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes, with mild to moderate degradations
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
31 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions
over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for
Northern AUS and Equatorial regions, with depressions observed
after local dawn and during local night along with sporadic E
in the first half of the UT day. Normal conditions for Antarctic
regions with some disturbed periods observed for the later half
of the UT day. Similar HF conditions are expected for each region
over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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