[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 29 09:46:12 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours
with only minor B-class events from region 949. Solar wind stream
parameters were elevated for the first half of the UT day, after
which the velocity declined from 575km/s to be 450km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component (Bz) of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-4nT
for most of the UT day. Solar wind velocity is expected to decline
further over the next 24 hours. A new equatorial positioned coronal
hole will be in geoeffective position in the next 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 23121111
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 8 43211211
Camden 5 221212-1
Canberra 3 22121100
Hobart 5 22131111
Casey(Ant) 9 34-22111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 61 (Active)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 1333 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 6 Quiet
30 Mar 6 Quiet
31 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2
days. An increase in geomagnetic activity is possible from 01Apr
onwards as a new equatorial positioned coronal hole will be in
geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes, with mild to moderate degradations
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
31 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Depressed conditions observed
after local dawn for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions along
with sporadic E, with normal HF conditions therafter. Degraded
condtions for Antarctic regions observed for the later half of
the UT day. Similar condtions are expected for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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