[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 27 09:30:26 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity remained very low on 26 March
UT day. The effect of the coronal hole kept the solar wind
stream strengthened. The solar wind velocity increased from
440 to 520 km/s during the first seven hours of the UT day
today and then gradually decreased to 460 km/s by the time
of this report (around 2300UT). The north-south component
(Bz) showed minor to moderate (mostly around +/-5 nT)
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost the
whole day. The effect of this coronal hole is expected to
keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the next one to
two days. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to unsettled
with some active periods.
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 23222322
Darwin 7 22122322
Townsville 8 12222332
Learmonth 10 23222422
Camden 6 12221312
Canberra 9 12222422
Hobart 9 13222412
Casey(Ant) 13 34322313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2124 4212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, active periods possible.
28 Mar 8 Mostly quiet, unsettled periods possible.
29 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity levels to
unsettled and sometimes to active levels on 27 March. The
effect of the coronal hole is expected to gradually diminish
thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs are possible on high latitude circuits
on 27 March due to the possibility of an enhancement in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Minor to mild
degradations in HF conditions and deprssesions in MUFs may
also be observed at times on high latitudes on 28 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressions observed after local dawn.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 14 near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 16 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most parts of the Aus/NZ region for the next three days
with some possibility of minor degrdations and MUF depressions
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions at times on 27 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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