[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 26 09:47:30 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity remained very low on 25 March
UT day. The effect of the coronal hole kept the solar wind
stream strengthened. The solar wind speed increased from
380 to 480 km/s during the first half of the UT day and
then gradually decreased to 440 km/s by the time of this
report (around 2300UT). The north-south component (Bz) of
the interplanetary magnetic field remained positive for
the first 4 hours of the UT day today and then showed minor
to moderate (around +/- 5nT) fluctuations on both sides of
the normal value through the rest of the day. Bz is positive
at the time of this report. The effect of this coronal hole
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for
the next two days. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with some active periods.
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 33233111
Darwin 8 32233111
Townsville 11 33233222
Learmonth 15 43344112
Camden 7 22233111
Canberra 11 32244111
Hobart 10 22244111
Casey(Ant) 13 34432112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21 4545 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 14 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
27 Mar 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, active periods possible.
28 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 23 March
and is current for interval 25-26 March. The effect of a
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may raise
the geomagnetic activity levels to mostly unsettled to active
levels on 26 March with some possibility of isolated minor
storm periods on this day, especially if Bz stays southwards
for prolonged intervals of time. The effect of the coronal
hole is expected to gradually diminish thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs are possible on high latitude circuits
on 26 March due to the possibility of an enhancement in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Minor to mild
degradations in HF conditions and deprssesions in MUFs may
also be observed on high latitudes on 27 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% for a few hours after local dawn.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of minor to
significant degradations in HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 14 near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 16 near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 18 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 24
March and is current for interval 25-26 March. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal for most parts of the
Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with some possibility
of minor degrdations and MUF depressions in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions at times on 26 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 13.5 p/cc Temp: 26500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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