[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 24 10:30:40 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity remained very low today. The
anticipated effect of the coronal hole seems to have started
strengthening the solar wind stream. The solar wind speed
gradually increased from 260 to 370 km/s during the UT day
today and it is still going up. The north-south component
(Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field showed minor to
moderate (upto approx. +/-5nT) fluctuations almost the whole
day today, staying southwards for relatively longer intervals
of time. The effect of this coronal hole is expected to further
strengthen the solar wind stream over the next two to three
days. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 12223322
Darwin 9 22223322
Townsville 10 22223332
Learmonth 12 13224332
Camden 8 11133322
Canberra 8 11133322
Hobart 9 11233322
Casey(Ant) 9 23322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1001 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
25 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
26 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity levels to
mostly unsettled levels on 24 March and mostly unsttled to
active levels on 25 and 26 March. Isolated minor storm periods
may also be observed on 25 and 26 March, especially if Bz
stays southwards for prolonged intervals of time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed at high latitude
locations on 24 March and on mid latitude locations on
25 and 26 March. Mild to moderate degradations in HF
conditions and depressions in MUFs are possible on high
latitude circuits on 25 and 26 March due to the possibility
of an enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 12 near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05%
26 Mar 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most part of the Aus/NZ regions on 24 March. Minor to
mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs
are possible on 25 and 26 March, especially in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 262 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 16700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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